From: A model-free approach to do long-term volatility forecasting and its variants
 | P-GE | P-GA | Relative value |
---|---|---|---|
500 simulated data | |||
M1-1step | 0.85483 | 0.84138 | 0.02 |
M1-5steps | 0.40510 | 0.40137 | 0.01 |
M1-30steps | 0.03293 | 0.03290 | 0.00 |
M2-1step | 0.98431 | 0.99658 | 0.01 |
M2-5steps | 0.90156 | 0.91980 | 0.02 |
M2-30steps | 0.49761 | 0.48396 | 0.03 |
M3-1step | 0.99360 | 0.98407 | 0.01 |
M3-5steps | 0.94456 | 0.94073 | 0.00 |
M3-30steps | 0.92128 | 0.90855 | 0.01 |
M4-1step | 0.97484 | 0.99640 | 0.02 |
M4-5steps | 0.90862 | 0.95338 | 0.05 |
M4-30steps | 0.68266 | 0.67594 | 0.01 |
M5-1step | 0.96936 | 0.97151 | 0.00 |
M5-5steps | 0.82810 | 0.82747 | 0.00 |
M5-30steps | 0.53026 | 0.47311 | 0.11 |
M6-1step | 0.90196 | 0.93509 | 0.04 |
M6-5steps | 0.75922 | 0.80311 | 0.05 |
M6-30steps | 0.40790 | 0.41112 | 0.01 |
M7-1step | 0.96081 | 0.95932 | 0.00 |
M7-5steps | 0.84889 | 0.85127 | 0.00 |
M7-30steps | 0.69698 | 0.71391 | 0.02 |
M8-1step | 0.92557 | 0.93452 | 0.01 |
M8-5steps | 0.92549 | 0.93178 | 0.01 |
M8-30steps | 0.33834 | 0.33853 | 0.00 |
250 simulated data | |||
M1-1step | 0.83168 | 0.83034 | 0.00 |
M1-5steps | 0.43772 | 0.43247 | 0.01 |
M1-30steps | 0.22659 | 0.23035 | 0.02 |
M2-1step | 0.88781 | 0.87614 | 0.01 |
M2-5steps | 0.52872 | 0.51712 | 0.02 |
M2-30steps | 0.73604 | 0.75251 | 0.02 |
M3-1step | 0.94635 | 0.93693 | 0.01 |
M3-5steps | 0.96361 | 0.99977 | 0.04 |
M3-30steps | 0.98872 | 0.99818 | 0.01 |
M4-1step | 0.92829 | 0.92811 | 0.00 |
M4-5steps | 0.67482 | 0.67894 | 0.01 |
M4-30steps | 0.71003 | 0.81115 | 0.12 |
M5-1step | 0.78087 | 0.79075 | 0.01 |
M5-5steps | 0.34396 | 0.35155 | 0.02 |
M5-30steps | 0.00201 | 0.00194 | 0.03 |
M6-1step | 0.94661 | 0.93863 | 0.01 |
M6-5steps | 0.84719 | 0.85851 | 0.01 |
M6-30steps | 0.70301 | 0.70420 | 0.00 |
M7-1step | 0.73553 | 0.83216 | 0.12 |
M7-5steps | 0.46618 | 0.48020 | 0.03 |
M7-30steps | 0.06479 | 0.06507 | 0.00 |
M8-1step | 0.76586 | 0.83340 | 0.08 |
M8-5steps | 0.38107 | 0.45665 | 0.17 |
M8-30steps | 0.00918 | 0.00983 | 0.07 |
Previous 2-year real-world data | |||
AAPL-1step | 0.98261 | 0.97836 | 0.00 |
AAPL-5steps | 1.00090 | 0.96999 | 0.03 |
AAPL-30steps | 0.97326 | 0.96174 | 0.01 |
BAC-1step | 1.00416 | 1.02780 | 0.02 |
BAC-5steps | 0.97542 | 0.99399 | 0.02 |
BAC-30steps | 0.99533 | 1.00363 | 0.01 |
MSFT-1step | 0.97376 | 0.96185 | 0.01 |
MSFT-5steps | 0.96601 | 0.95271 | 0.01 |
MSFT-30steps | 0.91046 | 0.88515 | 0.03 |
MCD-1step | 0.98873 | 0.99005 | 0.00 |
MCD-5steps | 0.98059 | 0.97777 | 0.00 |
MCD-30steps | 0.99512 | 0.99418 | 0.00 |
1-year stock data | |||
MCD18-1step | 0.95332 | 0.94412 | 0.01 |
MCD18-5steps | 0.88773 | 0.88151 | 0.01 |
MCD18-30steps | 0.61097 | 0.61153 | 0.00 |
MCD19-1step | 0.93141 | 0.94559 | 0.01 |
MCD19-5steps | 0.90061 | 0.90602 | 0.01 |
MCD19-30steps | 0.80805 | 0.77976 | 0.04 |
AAPL18-1step | 0.96311 | 0.89283 | 0.07 |
AAPL18-5steps | 0.85114 | 0.71233 | 0.16 |
AAPL18-30steps | 0.35731 | 0.37081 | 0.04 |
AAPL19-1step | 0.80948 | 0.81872 | 0.01 |
AAPL19-5steps | 0.68191 | 0.68792 | 0.01 |
AAPL19-30steps | 0.73823 | 0.72892 | 0.01 |
BAC18-1step | 0.93031 | 0.92619 | 0.00 |
BAC18-5steps | 0.86387 | 0.72512 | 0.16 |
BAC18-30steps | 0.81429 | 0.87630 | 0.07 |
BAC19-1step | 0.97757 | 0.98605 | 0.01 |
BAC19-5steps | 0.89571 | 0.95436 | 0.06 |
BAC19-30steps | 1.01175 | 1.03482 | 0.02 |
MSFT18-1step | 0.94507 | 0.95921 | 0.01 |
MSFT18-5steps | 0.76646 | 0.74237 | 0.03 |
MSFT18-30steps | 0.68741 | 0.64717 | 0.06 |
MSFT19-1step | 0.98469 | 0.95347 | 0.03 |
MSFT19-5steps | 1.02387 | 0.95417 | 0.07 |
MSFT19-30steps | 0.97585 | 0.98476 | 0.01 |
Tesla18-1step | 0.95885 | 0.86238 | 0.10 |
Tesla18-5steps | 1.02036 | 1.01560 | 0.00 |
Tesla18-30steps | 1.22256 | 1.25005 | 0.02 |
Tesla19-1step | 0.98646 | 0.98955 | 0.00 |
Tesla19-5steps | 0.97523 | 0.96107 | 0.01 |
Tesla19-30steps | 0.87158 | 0.84366 | 0.03 |
Bitcoin18-1step | 0.99967 | 0.97734 | 0.02 |
Bitcoin18-5steps | 1.02008 | 0.93826 | 0.08 |
Bitcoin18-30steps | 0.95020 | 0.91364 | 0.04 |
Bitcoin19-1step | 0.86795 | 0.87256 | 0.01 |
Bitcoin19-5steps | 0.55620 | 0.56789 | 0.02 |
Bitcoin19-30steps | 0.00624 | 0.00631 | 0.01 |
1-year index data | |||
NASDAQ18-1step | 0.94837 | 0.92421 | 0.03 |
NASDAQ18-5steps | 0.83585 | 0.78823 | 0.06 |
NASDAQ18-30steps | 0.74660 | 0.67389 | 0.10 |
NASDAQ19-1step | 0.93558 | 0.93843 | 0.00 |
NASDAQ19-5steps | 0.84459 | 0.84051 | 0.00 |
NASDAQ19-30steps | 0.58924 | 0.59218 | 0.00 |
NYSE18-1step | 0.95793 | 0.96619 | 0.01 |
NYSE18-5steps | 0.87919 | 0.75822 | 0.14 |
NYSE18-30steps | 0.79466 | 0.61830 | 0.22 |
NYSE19-1step | 0.90407 | 0.92193 | 0.02 |
NYSE19-5steps | 0.69822 | 0.71038 | 0.02 |
NYSE19-30steps | 0.18173 | 0.18116 | 0.00 |
Smallcap18-1step | 0.91299 | 0.91101 | 0.00 |
Smallcap18-5steps | 0.73541 | 0.73223 | 0.00 |
Samllcap18-30steps | 0.48461 | 0.46312 | 0.04 |
Smallcap19-1step | 0.98731 | 0.98482 | 0.00 |
Smallcap19-5steps | 0.87700 | 0.85490 | 0.03 |
Samllcap19-30steps | 0.88825 | 0.90360 | 0.02 |
Djones18-1step | 0.84931 | 0.91192 | 0.07 |
Djones18-5steps | 0.86017 | 0.76226 | 0.11 |
Djones18-30steps | 0.66418 | 0.56854 | 0.14 |
Djones19-1step | 0.96365 | 0.96977 | 0.01 |
Djones19-5steps | 0.89542 | 0.91238 | 0.02 |
Djones19-30steps | 0.80304 | 0.81803 | 0.02 |
S &P500-18-1step | 0.90469 | 0.88405 | 0.02 |
S &P500-18-5steps | 0.90544 | 0.75646 | 0.16 |
S &P500-18-30steps | 0.83210 | 0.72104 | 0.13 |
S &P500-19-1step | 0.92183 | 0.93162 | 0.01 |
S &P500-19-5steps | 0.75579 | 0.77434 | 0.02 |
S &P500-19-30steps | 0.29796 | 0.30127 | 0.01 |
BSE18-1step | 0.94676 | 0.92568 | 0.02 |
BSE18-5steps | 0.82886 | 0.84408 | 0.02 |
BSE18-30steps | 0.44818 | 0.44092 | 0.02 |
BSE19-1step | 0.67694 | 0.66667 | 0.02 |
BSE19-5steps | 0.23665 | 0.23603 | 0.00 |
BSE19-30steps | 0.02890 | 0.02888 | 0.00 |
BIST18-1step | 0.92271 | 0.94138 | 0.02 |
BIST18-5steps | 0.80837 | 0.81417 | 0.01 |
BIST18-30steps | 1.09665 | 1.09900 | 0.00 |
BIST19-1step | 0.95467 | 0.98234 | 0.03 |
BIST19-5steps | 0.82898 | 0.85370 | 0.03 |
BIST19-30steps | 0.88511 | 0.85743 | 0.03 |
Volatile 1-year stock data | |||
NKE-1step | 0.65295 | 0.65594 | 0.00 |
NKE-5steps | 0.22550 | 0.22226 | 0.01 |
NKE-30steps | 0.00337 | 0.00340 | 0.01 |
AMZN-1step | 0.90200 | 0.90487 | 0.00 |
AMZN-5steps | 0.71789 | 0.72850 | 0.01 |
AMZN-30steps | 0.53460 | 0.53310 | 0.00 |
IBM-1step | 0.80744 | 0.79509 | 0.02 |
IBM-5steps | 0.40743 | 0.38413 | 0.06 |
IBM-30steps | 0.00918 | 0.00879 | 0.04 |
MSFT-1step | 0.84502 | 0.81582 | 0.03 |
MSFT-5steps | 0.37528 | 0.38022 | 0.01 |
MSFT-30steps | 0.00732 | 0.00784 | 0.07 |
SBUX-1step | 0.69943 | 0.66743 | 0.05 |
SBUX-5steps | 0.30528 | 0.26856 | 0.12 |
SBUX-30steps | 0.00289 | 0.00236 | 0.18 |
KO-1step | 0.81309 | 0.77035 | 0.05 |
KO-5steps | 0.39679 | 0.33405 | 0.16 |
KO-30steps | 0.01963 | 0.01582 | 0.19 |
MCD-1step | 0.58018 | 0.56414 | 0.03 |
MCD-5steps | 0.17887 | 0.17439 | 0.03 |
MCD-30steps | 0.00001 | 0.00001 | 0.02 |
Tesla-1step | 0.89253 | 0.88782 | 0.01 |
Tesla-5steps | 0.66177 | 0.66937 | 0.01 |
Tesla-30steps | 0.22460 | 0.22395 | 0.00 |
Bitcoin-1step | 0.36346 | 0.36326 | 0.00 |
Bitcoin-5steps | 0.01321 | 0.01322 | 0.00 |
Bitcoin-30steps | 0.00000 | 0.00000 | 0.00 |
Volatile 1-year currency data | |||
CADJPY-1step | 0.48712 | 0.48367 | 0.01 |
CADJPY-5steps | 0.13549 | 0.14376 | 0.06 |
CADJPY-30steps | 0.00394 | 0.00482 | 0.18 |
EURJPY-1step | 0.94206 | 0.95133 | 0.01 |
EURJPY-5steps | 0.76727 | 0.75636 | 0.01 |
EURJPY-30steps | 0.15350 | 0.18189 | 0.16 |
USDCNY-1step | 0.96766 | 0.95757 | 0.01 |
USDCNY-5steps | 0.86364 | 0.83523 | 0.03 |
USDCNY-30steps | 0.60121 | 0.60131 | 0.00 |
GBPJPY-1step | 0.86553 | 0.87160 | 0.01 |
GBPJPY-5steps | 0.49208 | 0.48842 | 0.01 |
GBPJPY-30steps | 0.17246 | 0.17262 | 0.00 |
USDINR-1step | 0.98975 | 0.93140 | 0.06 |
USDINR-5steps | 0.81103 | 0.75693 | 0.07 |
USDINR-30steps | 0.17966 | 0.11380 | 0.37 |
CNYJPY-1step | 0.79877 | 0.74586 | 0.07 |
CNYJPY-5steps | 0.40569 | 0.34839 | 0.14 |
CNYJPY-30steps | 0.06270 | 0.05444 | 0.13 |
Volatile 1-year index data | |||
S &P500-1step | 0.92349 | 0.92854 | 0.01 |
S &P500-5steps | 0.75183 | 0.77060 | 0.02 |
S &P500-30steps | 0.29793 | 0.30115 | 0.01 |
NASDAQ-1step | 0.75350 | 0.77753 | 0.03 |
NASDAQ-5steps | 0.33519 | 0.36428 | 0.08 |
NASDAQ-30steps | 0.00599 | 0.00696 | 0.14 |
NYSE-1step | 0.57174 | 0.54598 | 0.05 |
NYSE-5steps | 0.10182 | 0.07798 | 0.23 |
NYSE-30steps | 0.00001 | 0.00001 | 0.01 |
Smallcap-1step | 0.60931 | 0.57773 | 0.05 |
Smallcap-5steps | 0.10337 | 0.09628 | 0.07 |
Smallcap-30steps | 0.00006 | 0.00004 | 0.39 |
BSE-1step | 0.39745 | 0.39851 | 0.00 |
BSE-5steps | 0.04109 | 0.04170 | 0.01 |
BSE-30steps | 0.00002 | 0.00002 | 0.05 |
DAX-1step | 0.64727 | 0.66097 | 0.02 |
DAX-5steps | 0.10356 | 0.11085 | 0.07 |
DAX-30steps | 0.00007 | 0.00008 | 0.06 |
USDX future-1step | 0.99640 | 1.03693 | 0.04 |
USDX future-5steps | 0.54834 | 0.51997 | 0.05 |
USDX future-30steps | 0.10278 | 0.10063 | 0.02 |
Bovespa-1step | 0.57558 | 0.60656 | 0.05 |
Bovespa-5steps | 0.07447 | 0.09395 | 0.21 |
Bovespa-30steps | 2.04E−6 | 3.19E−6 | 0.36 |
Djones-1step | 0.57550 | 0.54422 | 0.05 |
Djones-5steps | 0.11554 | 0.08698 | 0.25 |
Djones-30steps | 0.00001 | 0.00003 | 0.53 |
BIST-1step | 0.90832 | 0.92418 | 0.02 |
BIST-5steps | 0.47480 | 0.49279 | 0.04 |
BIST-30steps | 0.05550 | 0.05671 | 0.02 |