Table 7 Coefficients for the loan amount (in log) and propensity for arrears
From: Adverse selection, loan access and default behavior in the Chilean consumer debt market
Control variables | Consumer debt (in log) OLS | Arrears longer than 1 and 3 months Ordered Logit | Arrears in the past year Logit |
|---|---|---|---|
Age | − 0.002*** (0.0009) | − 0.0249*** (0.00254) | − 0.0224*** (0.00193) |
OECD equivalent household size | 0.00188 (0.0176) | 0.502*** (0.0506) | 0.398*** (0.0376) |
Income: \(\ln (\bar{P}_{i,t})\) | 0.439*** (0.0211) | − 0.452*** (0.0705) | − 0.327*** (0.0486) |
Unemployment \(\bar{u}_{i,t}\) | − 0.622** (0.296) | 3.201*** (0.844) | 2.304*** (0.642) |
Wage volatility \(\bar{\sigma }_{i,t}\) | − 0.0220 (0.0359) | 0.0680 (0.0846) | − 0.0568 (0.0708) |
Education (years) | 0.0308*** (0.00473) | − 0.0985*** (0.0138) | − 0.0686*** (0.0104) |
Santiago capital region | 0.00903 (0.0252) | − 0.102 (0.0689) | − 0.0637 (0.0536) |
2008/2009 | 0.0375 (0.0485) | 0.368*** (0.115) | |
2010 / 2011 | − 0.277*** (0.0354) | 0.711*** (0.0867) | |
2014 | − 0.307*** (0.0406) | − 0.367*** (0.0966) | 0.404*** (0.0984) |
2017 | 0.0646 (0.0407) | 0.0249 (0.0973) | 1.252*** (0.0948) |
Share of loan for “Durables” | 0.906*** (0.0354) | − 0.182* (0.109) | 0.154** (0.0769) |
Share of loan for “Pay previous debts” | 0.969*** (0.0419) | 0.431*** (0.118) | 0.531*** (0.0872) |
Share of loan for health needs | 0.416*** (0.0588) | 0.355** (0.150) | 0.522*** (0.116) |
\(1(Y_{i,t}=1)\Pr (Y_{i,t}\ne 1\mid x_{i,t})\) | − 0.470*** (0.138) | − 0.359 (0.404) | − 1.107*** (0.302) |
\(1(Y_{i,t}=2)\Pr (Y_{i,t}\ne 2\mid x_{i,t})\) | 0.278** (0.137) | 0.423 (0.390) | − 0.374 (0.299) |
\(1(Y_{i,t}=3)\Pr (Y_{i,t}\ne 3\mid x_{i,t})\) | − 1.930*** (0.157) | 0.402 (0.464) | − 0.471 (0.349) |
\(1(Y_{i,t}=4)\Pr (Y_{i,t}\ne 4\mid x_{i,t})\) | − 1.098*** (0.130) | − 0.0540 (0.390) | − 0.704** (0.289) |
\(1(Y_{i,t}=5)\Pr (Y_{i,t}\ne 5\mid x_{i,t})\) | 0.382*** (0.131) | − 0.245 (0.390) | − 0.511* (0.288) |
Ratio of Debt Service to Income, \(DSIR_{i,t}\) | 1.267*** (0.148) | 0.998*** (0.122) | |
Ratio of Debt to Income, \(CDPIR_{i,t}\) | 0.797*** (0.164) | 0.751*** (0.130) | |
Share of the largest loan type of the total consumer debt | − 0.951*** (0.0462) | − 0.578*** (0.131) | − 0.358*** (0.100) |
Constant | 8.449*** (0.286) | 5.732*** (0.956) | 3.870*** (0.654) |
Cutoff 2 | 1.624* (0.953) | ||
Observations | 12,075 | 9071 | 12,075 |
R-squared or Pseudo R2 | 0.498 | 0.106 | 0.104 |