From: Industry return lead-lag relationships between the US and other major countries
Ā | BM | CD | CS | EN | FI | HC | IN | RE | TEC | TEL | UT |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Expansions | |||||||||||
\(US\to CN\) | 0.066 | 0.102* | 0.049 | 0.020 | 0.021 | 0.045 | āā0.011 | 0.037 | āā0.010 | 0.055 | 0.077 |
\(CN\to US\) | āā0.012 | āā0.025 | 0.000 | 0.049 | āā0.010 | āā0.026 | 0.019 | 0.008 | 0.031 | āā0.055 | 0.024 |
\(US\to FR\) | 0.048 | 0.022 | 0.017 | 0.093* | āā0.037 | 0.008 | āā0.019 | āā0.008 | 0.005 | āā0.006 | 0.048 |
\(FR\to US\) | 0.027 | āā0.001 | āā0.008 | 0.021 | āā0.024 | 0.005 | 0.005 | 0.005 | 0.051* | āā0.014 | āā0.072 |
\(US\to GE\) | 0.067* | 0.035 | 0.068 | āā0.002 | āā0.002 | 0.048 | 0.033 | āā0.002 | 0.020 | āā0.023 | 0.026* |
\(GE\to US\) | 0.025 | āā0.021 | 0.013 | 0.016 | āā0.035 | 0.022 | āā0.019 | āā0.013 | 0.071* | 0.018 | āā0.012 |
\(US\to JP\) | 0.081* | 0.092* | 0.067 | 0.131* | 0.066 | 0.114* | 0.134* | 0.064* | 0.145* | 0.093 | 0.112* |
\(JP\to US\) | āā0.032 | āā0.063* | āā0.033 | 0.041* | āā0.010 | āā0.026 | āā0.017 | 0.005 | āā0.002 | āā0.020 | 0.012 |
\(US\to CH\) | 0.150* | 0.008 | 0.020 | 0.109* | 0.051 | 0.034 | 0.034 | āā0.013 | 0.005 | 0.042 | 0.029* |
\(CH\to US\) | 0.008 | āā0.008 | āā0.007 | 0.036 | āā0.029 | 0.023 | āā0.004 | 0.008 | 0.055 | āā0.005 | āā0.020 |
\(US\to UK\) | 0.081* | 0.071* | 0.064 | 0.115* | 0.035 | 0.046 | 0.044 | 0.041 | 0.113* | 0.022 | 0.022 |
\(UK\to US\) | 0.019 | āā0.005 | 0.024 | 0.074* | āā0.017 | 0.016 | 0.003 | 0.030 | 0.020 | āā0.018 | 0.000 |
Recessions | |||||||||||
\(US\to CN\) | 0.223 | 0.298* | 0.110 | 0.216 | 0.131 | 0.265* | 0.222 | 0.066 | 0.012 | 0.121 | 0.150 |
\(CN\to US\) | āā0.113 | āā0.032 | 0.196* | āā0.035 | 0.069 | 0.031 | āā0.026 | āā0.084 | 0.112 | āā0.068 | 0.078 |
\(US\to FR\) | 0.195* | 0.129 | 0.032 | 0.175 | 0.258* | 0.028 | 0.140 | 0.129* | 0.102 | 0.002 | 0.233* |
\(FR\to US\) | 0.021 | 0.119 | 0.145* | 0.006 | āā0.066 | 0.108 | 0.029 | 0.012 | 0.050 | āā0.041 | 0.059 |
\(US\to GE\) | 0.196* | 0.307* | 0.052 | 0.196* | 0.191* | 0.146* | 0.125 | 0.044 | 0.002 | 0.193 | 0.152 |
\(GE\to US\) | āā0.061 | 0.003 | 0.089 | āā0.034 | āā0.003 | 0.065 | 0.003 | 0.029 | 0.039 | āā0.007 | 0.031 |
\(US\to JP\) | 0.215* | 0.211* | 0.161 | 0.183* | 0.200* | 0.189* | 0.219* | 0.153* | 0.221* | 0.195* | 0.098 |
\(JP\to US\) | 0.045 | āā0.015 | 0.038 | āā0.055 | āā0.158 | 0.028 | āā0.011 | āā0.029 | āā0.033 | āā0.041 | 0.014 |
\(US\to CH\) | 0.295* | 0.092 | 0.074* | 0.144 | 0.069 | 0.134 | 0.110 | 0.074 | 0.006 | 0.130 | āā0.008 |
\(CH\to US\) | āā0.090 | āā0.019 | 0.032 | āā0.017 | āā0.169* | 0.013 | āā0.090 | āā0.169* | āā0.033 | āā0.070 | 0.058 |
\(US\to UK\) | 0.290* | 0.230* | 0.154 | 0.207 | 0.184 | 0.157 | 0.204 | 0.229* | 0.139 | 0.185 | 0.074 |
\(UK\to US\) | āā0.029 | āā0.001 | 0.149* | 0.061 | āā0.066 | 0.124* | 0.006 | āā0.022 | āā0.028 | āā0.077 | 0.030 |