Table 3 System GMM analysis of EMP across central Asia
Variables | Baseline Model | Model-1 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
EMP central Asia (depend.) | Coefficient (s.e) | t-value | Coefficients (s.e) | t-value |
EMP (t − 1) | 0.5526** (0.1268) | 4.3 | 0.5183*** (0.1017) | 5.0 |
EMP China | − 0.6415** (0.1478) | − 4.3 | − 0.4977** (0.1353) | − 3.6 |
EMP Russia | − 1.2821** (0.5618) | − 2.2 | − 1.0350** (0.3123) | − 3.3 |
Dollar Index | 0.1601** (0.0594) | 2.6 | 0.1195** (0.0332) | 3.5 |
Exchange rate (t − 1) | − 0.0006** (0.0002) | − 3.0 | − 0.0005** (0.0001) | − 5.0 |
Current | − 0.000 (0.000) | − 0.0 | 0.0002 (0.0003) | 0.6 |
Current (t − 1) | – | – | − 0.0003 (0.0012) | − 0.2 |
Reserves | 0.0000 (0.0000) | − 0.0 | 0.0001** (0.0000) | 3.3 |
Reserves (t − 1) | – | – | − 0.0002* (0.0000) | − 2.2 |
Broad money | − 1.2801 (0.7165) | − 1.7 | 7.5201** (2.4296) | 3.0 |
Broad money (t − 1) | – | – | − 8.1396** (2.5025) | − 3.2 |
Exports | 0.0000 (0.0000) | 0.0 | 0.0000 (0.0000) | 0.0 |
Exports (t − 1) | – | – | 0.0000 (0.0000) | 0.0 |
Imports | 0.0001 (0.0006) | 0.1 | − 0.0000 (0.0000) | − 0.0 |
Imports (t − 1) | – | – | 0.0001 (0.0014) | 0.0 |
Time dummies | [YES] | – | [YES] | – |
Country dummies | [YES] | – | [YES] | – |
AR (1) test [P-value] | [0.073] | – | [0.057] | – |
AR (2) test [P-value] | [0.194] | – | [0.208] | – |
Sargan test value [P-value] | Chi (153) = 174.99 [0.1079] | – | Chi (137) = 139.05 [0.4349] | – |
Observations | 234 | – | 223 | – |
Countries | 4 | – | 4 | – |