From: Uncertainty index and stock volatility prediction: evidence from international markets
Asset | Cycle | EMU (%) | VIX (%) | DVIX (%) | VOL (%) | USEPU (%) | UKEPU (%) | CNEPU (%) | PCA (%) | PLS (%) | s-FPCA (%) | s-PCA (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AORD | Exp. | 0.20 | 2.34 | 5.59 | 3.12 | 0.12 | − 0.07 | − 0.04 | 3.31 | 3.48 | 6.88 | 7.47 |
Rec. | 2.84 | 5.75 | 8.90 | 1.25 | 0.06 | − 0.05 | − 0.28 | 2.13 | 11.30 | 8.89 | 7.32 | |
BFX | Exp. | 0.17 | 4.99 | 6.80 | 0.37 | − 0.08 | 0.02 | − 0.10 | 2.59 | 1.74 | 6.09 | 6.17 |
Rec. | − 0.01 | − 1.15 | 8.51 | 0.36 | − 0.21 | 0.14 | 0.16 | 1.97 | 4.02 | 3.97 | 3.66 | |
BSESN | Exp. | 0.18 | 0.64 | 1.72 | 0.32 | 0.00 | − 0.14 | − 0.15 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1.84 | 1.88 |
Rec. | 2.49 | 14.75 | 5.22 | − 0.01 | − 0.38 | − 0.09 | − 0.01 | 2.35 | 5.21 | 5.24 | 6.12 | |
BVSP | Exp. | 0.14 | 0.80 | 1.61 | 0.06 | − 0.12 | − 0.12 | − 0.05 | 1.09 | 0.72 | 1.55 | 1.77 |
Rec. | 0.48 | 3.49 | 1.26 | 0.00 | 0.06 | − 0.01 | 0.22 | 1.05 | 2.12 | 2.17 | 2.19 | |
DJI | Exp. | 0.40 | 7.88 | 5.03 | − 0.11 | − 0.08 | − 0.03 | − 0.11 | 1.47 | 1.23 | 4.03 | 3.87 |
Rec. | 0.60 | − 20.65 | 3.17 | − 0.06 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 1.48 | 1.74 | 0.05 | 2.27 | |
FCHI | Exp. | 0.29 | 4.38 | 7.25 | 0.82 | − 0.03 | − 0.10 | − 0.12 | 2.49 | 1.90 | 6.33 | 6.45 |
Rec. | − 0.29 | 3.45 | 8.52 | 0.41 | − 0.43 | − 0.01 | 0.18 | 2.21 | 5.04 | 4.98 | 4.69 | |
FTMIB | Exp. | − 0.06 | 2.61 | 5.99 | 0.34 | − 0.04 | − 0.05 | − 0.15 | 2.16 | 1.03 | 6.12 | 5.86 |
Rec. | − 3.56 | 3.66 | 12.47 | 1.13 | 0.07 | − 0.14 | − 1.13 | − 2.26 | 7.55 | 2.39 | 0.19 | |
FTSE | Exp. | 0.07 | 6.63 | 5.24 | 1.33 | − 0.03 | − 0.07 | − 0.09 | 3.00 | 2.35 | 6.11 | 6.56 |
Rec. | 0.61 | − 4.90 | 5.05 | 0.53 | − 0.16 | − 0.12 | − 0.32 | 0.56 | 5.39 | 4.09 | 2.97 | |
GDAXI | Exp. | 0.10 | 2.28 | 6.02 | 1.06 | − 0.18 | − 0.09 | − 0.17 | 2.46 | 1.43 | 5.95 | 6.08 |
Rec. | − 0.63 | 9.40 | 7.50 | 0.49 | − 0.28 | − 0.02 | 0.03 | 1.80 | 5.01 | 5.10 | 2.97 | |
GSPTSE | Exp. | − 0.05 | 2.53 | 3.18 | 0.15 | − 0.09 | − 0.14 | − 0.18 | 1.28 | 0.74 | 3.09 | 3.06 |
Rec. | − 0.04 | 3.89 | 2.22 | − 0.55 | 0.69 | − 0.10 | 0.11 | 1.25 | 1.47 | 1.58 | 2.24 | |
HSI | Exp. | 0.29 | 2.24 | 2.32 | 0.26 | − 0.09 | − 0.04 | − 0.24 | 1.27 | 1.25 | 2.35 | 2.66 |
Rec. | 1.32 | 0.15 | 7.25 | 0.46 | − 0.05 | − 0.24 | 0.25 | 1.99 | 4.88 | 3.72 | 3.91 | |
IBEX | Exp. | 0.35 | 2.42 | 5.03 | 0.42 | − 0.06 | − 0.05 | − 0.04 | 2.17 | 1.42 | 4.34 | 4.85 |
Rec. | − 0.32 | − 1.35 | 8.67 | 0.16 | − 0.11 | 0.10 | − 0.29 | 3.65 | 3.86 | 4.96 | 4.63 | |
KS11 | Exp. | 0.45 | 2.19 | 4.58 | 0.28 | − 0.19 | − 0.17 | − 0.21 | 2.15 | 1.92 | 4.00 | 4.43 |
Rec. | 1.40 | 12.21 | 8.91 | − 0.71 | 0.04 | − 0.01 | − 0.05 | − 0.34 | 4.23 | 3.39 | 5.85 | |
KSE | Exp. | − 0.12 | 0.10 | − 0.01 | − 0.18 | − 0.05 | − 0.18 | − 0.14 | − 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.07 |
Rec. | 0.39 | 1.27 | − 0.11 | − 0.19 | 0.24 | − 0.55 | − 0.03 | 0.27 | 0.05 | − 0.25 | 0.01 | |
MXX | Exp. | 0.19 | 0.81 | 1.24 | − 0.02 | − 0.19 | − 0.10 | − 0.12 | 0.54 | 0.45 | 1.24 | 1.37 |
Rec. | 1.08 | 1.91 | − 0.10 | − 0.18 | 0.02 | − 0.03 | 0.16 | 1.02 | 2.44 | − 0.14 | 0.39 | |
N225 | Exp. | 0.38 | 2.44 | 6.13 | 0.73 | − 0.16 | − 0.03 | − 0.13 | 3.10 | 2.54 | 6.27 | 6.66 |
Rec. | 2.06 | − 5.67 | 15.56 | 1.90 | − 0.02 | − 0.03 | − 0.14 | 1.59 | 10.36 | 17.91 | 18.24 | |
OMXC20 | Exp. | 0.55 | 3.07 | 3.10 | 0.76 | − 0.15 | − 0.02 | − 0.11 | 2.69 | 2.29 | 3.40 | 3.68 |
Rec. | 1.60 | − 22.67 | 7.99 | 2.30 | 0.42 | − 0.21 | − 0.07 | 1.96 | 11.10 | 9.30 | 12.07 | |
OMXHPI | Exp. | 0.70 | 5.29 | 5.76 | 0.65 | − 0.21 | − 0.05 | − 0.05 | 4.68 | 2.78 | 5.98 | 6.12 |
Rec. | 0.41 | 9.18 | 9.70 | 2.80 | − 0.15 | 0.09 | 0.14 | − 1.03 | 10.43 | 10.86 | 13.20 | |
OMXSPI | Exp. | 0.47 | 5.55 | 7.48 | 0.34 | − 0.24 | 0.01 | − 0.11 | 4.88 | 2.44 | 7.47 | 7.50 |
Rec. | 1.12 | − 11.05 | 17.72 | 3.26 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.44 | − 0.47 | 14.13 | 19.32 | 22.36 | |
OSEAX | Exp. | 0.13 | 5.74 | 4.42 | 0.74 | − 0.18 | − 0.08 | − 0.11 | 3.11 | 2.00 | 4.80 | 5.09 |
Rec. | 0.06 | − 3.22 | 6.88 | 2.33 | − 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 3.90 | 6.29 | 4.49 | 3.80 | |
SSEC | Exp. | − 0.07 | 0.09 | 1.74 | − 0.03 | − 0.11 | − 0.03 | − 0.17 | 0.63 | 0.16 | 1.54 | 1.42 |
Rec. | − 0.28 | − 2.51 | 5.82 | − 0.26 | − 0.10 | 0.48 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 1.46 | 3.01 | 2.90 | |
SSMI | Exp. | 0.23 | 3.24 | 6.81 | 0.77 | 0.00 | − 0.11 | − 0.02 | 2.88 | 1.90 | 5.88 | 6.34 |
Rec. | 0.38 | − 0.63 | 7.62 | 1.48 | − 0.11 | − 0.02 | 0.20 | 2.46 | 4.23 | 4.01 | 3.56 | |
STOXX50E | Exp. | 0.15 | 3.83 | 5.24 | 1.42 | − 0.12 | − 0.02 | − 0.14 | 2.67 | 1.96 | 5.80 | 5.89 |
Rec. | 0.04 | 8.93 | 6.58 | 0.13 | − 0.62 | − 0.10 | − 0.17 | 2.42 | 6.09 | 2.64 | 1.96 |