From: Uncertainty index and stock volatility prediction: evidence from international markets
Asset | Horizon | EMU (%) | VIX (%) | DVIX (%) | VOL (%) | USEPU (%) | UKEPU (%) | CNEPU (%) | PCA (%) | PLS (%) | s-FPCA (%) | s-PCA (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AORD | h = 3 | 0.07 | 1.54 | 3.42 | 0.30 | − 0.12 | 0.01 | − 0.08 | 1.02 | 1.16 | 3.05 | 3.23 |
h = 6 | − 0.17 | 0.50 | 1.01 | 0.16 | − 0.08 | − 0.09 | − 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.20 | 1.16 | 1.00 | |
h = 12 | 0.11 | − 1.13 | 0.92 | − 0.06 | − 0.03 | 0.04 | − 0.05 | − 0.03 | 0.44 | 0.56 | 0.61 | |
BFX | h = 3 | 0.32 | 2.40 | 2.73 | − 0.29 | − 0.10 | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.87 | 1.02 | 2.05 | 1.81 |
h = 6 | 0.44 | 1.48 | 1.23 | 0.00 | − 0.10 | − 0.12 | − 0.15 | 0.49 | 1.08 | 1.21 | 1.15 | |
h = 12 | 0.18 | 0.32 | 0.53 | 0.00 | − 0.06 | 0.01 | − 0.10 | − 0.03 | 0.61 | 0.49 | 0.46 | |
BSESN | h = 3 | 0.37 | 2.77 | 1.47 | 0.04 | − 0.07 | − 0.05 | − 0.09 | 0.53 | 1.05 | 1.20 | 1.30 |
h = 6 | 0.49 | 2.60 | 0.35 | 0.05 | − 0.17 | − 0.04 | − 0.09 | 0.26 | 0.85 | 0.30 | 0.38 | |
h = 12 | 0.72 | 1.99 | − 0.02 | − 0.05 | − 0.08 | − 0.07 | − 0.07 | − 0.09 | 0.96 | − 0.01 | 0.03 | |
BVSP | h = 3 | 0.22 | 1.51 | 0.91 | − 0.06 | − 0.07 | − 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.27 | 0.35 | 0.54 | 0.63 |
h = 6 | 0.38 | 1.40 | 0.36 | − 0.01 | − 0.17 | − 0.04 | − 0.05 | 0.45 | 0.78 | 0.41 | 0.38 | |
h = 12 | 0.57 | 1.35 | 0.06 | − 0.10 | − 0.13 | − 0.16 | − 0.13 | 0.03 | 0.73 | 0.03 | 0.07 | |
DJI | h = 3 | 0.04 | 3.17 | 1.85 | − 0.03 | − 0.10 | − 0.06 | − 0.01 | 0.29 | 0.45 | 1.35 | 1.33 |
h = 6 | 0.04 | 2.41 | 1.06 | − 0.09 | − 0.15 | − 0.09 | − 0.13 | 0.44 | 0.42 | 1.00 | 1.01 | |
h = 12 | 0.01 | 1.90 | 0.55 | − 0.09 | − 0.12 | 0.00 | − 0.10 | − 0.04 | 0.16 | 0.44 | 0.40 | |
FCHI | h = 3 | 0.40 | 2.79 | 2.91 | − 0.35 | − 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.64 | 1.11 | 2.04 | 1.81 |
h = 6 | 0.40 | 2.14 | 0.92 | 0.04 | − 0.11 | − 0.11 | − 0.17 | 0.38 | 0.97 | 1.02 | 0.97 | |
h = 12 | 0.54 | 1.54 | 0.44 | − 0.02 | − 0.10 | 0.05 | − 0.12 | 0.01 | 0.93 | 0.41 | 0.40 | |
FTMIB | h = 3 | 0.18 | 1.48 | 2.88 | − 0.46 | − 0.13 | − 0.28 | 0.05 | 0.38 | 0.79 | 2.61 | 2.20 |
h = 6 | 0.40 | 0.54 | 1.15 | − 0.08 | − 0.09 | − 0.10 | − 0.21 | 0.33 | 0.88 | 1.21 | 1.25 | |
h = 12 | 0.29 | − 0.06 | 0.22 | 0.01 | − 0.11 | − 0.06 | − 0.06 | − 0.09 | 0.51 | 0.25 | 0.30 | |
FTSE | h = 3 | 0.24 | 3.48 | 3.09 | − 0.15 | − 0.15 | − 0.02 | − 0.02 | 0.93 | 1.07 | 2.53 | 2.57 |
h = 6 | 0.09 | 2.25 | 0.98 | 0.08 | − 0.13 | − 0.12 | − 0.11 | 0.37 | 0.63 | 1.11 | 1.01 | |
h = 12 | 0.24 | 1.17 | 0.75 | 0.01 | − 0.15 | − 0.02 | − 0.13 | 0.09 | 0.65 | 0.66 | 0.57 | |
GDAXI | h = 3 | 0.19 | 2.28 | 2.29 | − 0.29 | − 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.36 | 0.74 | 1.74 | 1.53 |
h = 6 | 0.26 | 1.92 | 0.48 | − 0.06 | − 0.08 | − 0.12 | − 0.13 | 0.22 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.53 | |
h = 12 | 0.41 | 2.09 | 0.37 | 0.00 | − 0.11 | − 0.08 | − 0.05 | − 0.01 | 0.76 | 0.31 | 0.30 | |
GSPTSE | h = 3 | 0.00 | 1.36 | 1.29 | − 0.16 | − 0.10 | − 0.12 | − 0.07 | 0.35 | 0.28 | 1.14 | 1.10 |
h = 6 | − 0.11 | 0.40 | 0.41 | − 0.07 | − 0.13 | − 0.10 | − 0.08 | 0.17 | 0.06 | 0.48 | 0.44 | |
h = 12 | − 0.06 | − 0.36 | 0.45 | − 0.08 | − 0.09 | − 0.09 | − 0.12 | − 0.13 | 0.08 | 0.46 | 0.43 | |
HSI | h = 3 | 0.12 | 1.53 | 1.66 | − 0.09 | − 0.18 | − 0.06 | − 0.14 | 0.73 | 0.75 | 1.34 | 1.39 |
h = 6 | 0.07 | 1.08 | 0.49 | − 0.11 | − 0.08 | − 0.05 | − 0.15 | 0.03 | 0.34 | 0.41 | 0.49 | |
h = 12 | 0.18 | 0.40 | 0.24 | − 0.04 | − 0.09 | − 0.06 | − 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.47 | 0.32 | 0.25 | |
IBEX | h = 3 | 0.36 | 1.38 | 2.05 | − 0.19 | − 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.72 | 0.86 | 1.56 | 1.39 |
h = 6 | 0.44 | 1.15 | 0.64 | 0.02 | − 0.11 | − 0.05 | − 0.14 | 0.27 | 0.83 | 0.56 | 0.55 | |
h = 12 | 0.16 | 0.27 | 0.35 | − 0.04 | − 0.08 | − 0.02 | − 0.11 | − 0.06 | 0.45 | 0.16 | 0.21 | |
KS11 | h = 3 | 0.34 | 2.46 | 2.32 | − 0.05 | − 0.12 | − 0.01 | − 0.06 | 0.59 | 1.16 | 1.96 | 2.18 |
h = 6 | 0.22 | 1.67 | 0.41 | 0.01 | − 0.14 | − 0.12 | − 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.68 | 0.35 | 0.38 | |
h = 12 | 1.08 | 1.54 | 0.67 | − 0.13 | − 0.11 | − 0.09 | − 0.16 | 0.07 | 1.61 | 0.66 | 0.76 | |
KSE | h = 3 | − 0.14 | 0.60 | − 0.04 | 0.05 | − 0.02 | 0.00 | − 0.13 | − 0.01 | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.26 |
h = 6 | − 0.42 | 0.47 | − 0.02 | − 0.07 | − 0.07 | − 0.09 | − 0.08 | − 0.09 | − 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.06 | |
h = 12 | − 0.82 | 0.18 | 0.13 | − 0.11 | − 0.05 | − 0.09 | − 0.14 | − 0.28 | − 0.55 | 0.14 | 0.19 | |
MXX | h = 3 | 0.13 | 0.75 | 1.11 | − 0.06 | − 0.14 | − 0.10 | − 0.06 | 0.33 | 0.36 | 0.52 | 0.74 |
h = 6 | − 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.67 | − 0.13 | − 0.02 | − 0.09 | − 0.05 | 0.31 | 0.17 | 0.71 | 0.74 | |
h = 12 | 0.01 | − 0.77 | 0.11 | − 0.10 | − 0.10 | − 0.09 | − 0.18 | − 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.12 | |
N225 | h = 3 | 0.62 | 0.80 | 3.06 | 0.17 | − 0.11 | 0.03 | − 0.07 | 1.57 | 1.89 | 3.08 | 3.14 |
h = 6 | 0.29 | 0.21 | 1.16 | − 0.05 | − 0.14 | − 0.04 | − 0.12 | 0.43 | 0.80 | 1.24 | 1.36 | |
h = 12 | − 0.07 | − 0.39 | 0.68 | 0.00 | 0.04 | − 0.12 | − 0.12 | 0.18 | 0.29 | 0.74 | 0.65 | |
OMXC20 | h = 3 | 0.17 | 0.97 | 1.24 | − 0.04 | − 0.15 | − 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 0.74 | 1.20 | 0.86 |
h = 6 | 0.13 | 0.35 | 0.02 | − 0.11 | − 0.04 | − 0.16 | − 0.17 | − 0.02 | 0.30 | 0.02 | − 0.01 | |
h = 12 | 0.09 | − 0.28 | 0.53 | − 0.05 | − 0.02 | − 0.11 | − 0.12 | − 0.11 | 0.34 | 0.52 | 0.47 | |
OMXHPI | h = 3 | 0.38 | 3.40 | 2.89 | − 0.43 | − 0.02 | − 0.07 | − 0.07 | 1.03 | 1.09 | 2.88 | 2.68 |
h = 6 | 0.47 | 2.48 | 0.79 | 0.07 | − 0.03 | − 0.19 | − 0.06 | 0.71 | 1.22 | 0.86 | 0.99 | |
h = 12 | 0.17 | 1.23 | 0.72 | − 0.01 | − 0.12 | − 0.02 | − 0.08 | 0.24 | 0.59 | 0.73 | 0.73 | |
OMXSPI | h = 3 | 0.30 | 2.43 | 3.15 | − 0.30 | − 0.04 | − 0.01 | − 0.11 | 1.36 | 1.29 | 3.23 | 2.90 |
h = 6 | 0.33 | 1.42 | 0.87 | − 0.29 | − 0.04 | − 0.09 | − 0.05 | 0.26 | 0.74 | 0.94 | 1.02 | |
h = 12 | 0.18 | 0.48 | 0.75 | − 0.04 | − 0.13 | − 0.05 | − 0.11 | 0.23 | 0.60 | 0.72 | 0.71 | |
OSEAX | h = 3 | 0.22 | 2.78 | 3.16 | − 0.05 | − 0.13 | − 0.06 | − 0.11 | 1.16 | 1.23 | 2.89 | 2.93 |
h = 6 | − 0.13 | 1.32 | 0.97 | − 0.09 | − 0.09 | − 0.08 | − 0.16 | 0.30 | 0.44 | 0.86 | 0.81 | |
h = 12 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 0.73 | − 0.05 | − 0.13 | − 0.06 | − 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.42 | 0.51 | 0.49 | |
SSEC | h = 3 | − 0.09 | − 0.46 | 0.19 | − 0.07 | − 0.16 | − 0.11 | − 0.06 | − 0.08 | − 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.05 |
h = 6 | − 0.07 | − 0.49 | − 0.09 | − 0.05 | − 0.06 | − 0.07 | − 0.10 | − 0.02 | − 0.08 | 0.00 | − 0.12 | |
h = 12 | − 0.05 | − 0.38 | − 0.08 | − 0.08 | − 0.08 | − 0.11 | − 0.09 | − 0.11 | 0.02 | − 0.08 | − 0.08 | |
SSMI | h = 3 | 0.10 | 1.39 | 2.78 | − 0.18 | − 0.08 | − 0.02 | − 0.01 | 0.80 | 0.74 | 2.28 | 2.36 |
h = 6 | 0.10 | 0.55 | 0.92 | 0.01 | − 0.11 | − 0.14 | − 0.09 | 0.29 | 0.64 | 0.77 | 0.69 | |
h = 12 | 0.07 | − 0.41 | 0.63 | − 0.06 | − 0.05 | − 0.07 | − 0.09 | − 0.09 | 0.31 | 0.43 | 0.46 | |
STI | h = 3 | 0.40 | 5.40 | 1.40 | − 0.10 | − 0.10 | − 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.30 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.50 |
h = 6 | 0.20 | 6.50 | 0.70 | − 0.10 | − 0.20 | 0.00 | − 0.10 | 0.001 | 0.70 | 0.80 | 0.90 | |
h = 12 | 0.60 | 5.00 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | − 0.10 | 0.40 | 1.30 | 0.60 | 0.70 | |
STOXX50E | h = 3 | 0.33 | 3.35 | 2.70 | − 0.14 | − 0.15 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 1.15 | 1.11 | 2.00 | 1.85 |
h = 6 | 0.34 | 2.73 | 0.95 | 0.00 | − 0.11 | − 0.10 | − 0.14 | 0.28 | 0.84 | 0.90 | 0.75 | |
h = 12 | 0.54 | 2.43 | 0.20 | − 0.05 | − 0.11 | 0.04 | − 0.23 | − 0.05 | 0.81 | 0.05 | 0.07 |