From: Can news-based economic sentiment predict bubbles in precious metal markets?
 | Dependent variable: Bubble | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Gold | Silver | Palladium | Platinum | |
\(NESI_{t - 1}\) | 0.0702** | 0.0036 | 0.0206 | 0.0474*** |
(0.0154) | (0.7690) | (0.7400) | (0.0000) | |
\(Inflation_{t - 1}\) | 1.6046* | 0.6159* | 1.3735*** | 1.8759*** |
(0.0940) | (0.0977) | (0.0000) | (0.0080) | |
\(US{\text{DI}}_{t - 1}\) | − 1.6744** | − 1.6348*** | − 2.8399*** | − 1.8218*** |
(0.0010) | (0.0000) | (0.0000) | (0.0049) | |
\({\text{EFR}}_{t - 1}\) | − 0.0031* | − 0.2431* | − 0.5383*** | − 0.1161*** |
(0.0970) | (0.0890) | (0.0000) | (0.0020) | |
\(T - Spread_{t - 1}\) | − 0.0479* | − 0.4905* | − 0.2297* | − 0.3733** |
(0.0887) | (0.0680) | (0.0519) | (0.0235) | |
\({\text{GEA}}_{t - 1}\) | 0.0083*** | 0.0070** | 0.0046*** | 0.0049*** |
(0.0000) | (0.0260) | (0.0032) | (0.0030) | |
\({\text{EPU}}_{t - 1}\) | 0.0128** | 0.0037 | 0.0045** | 0.0264*** |
(0.0130) | (0.6130) | (0.0362) | (0.0000) | |
\({\text{GPR}}_{t - 1}\) | 0.0086*** | 0.0014 | 0.0120*** | 0.0006** |
(0.0070) | (0.7910) | (0.0000) | (0.0409) | |
\({\text{ID}} - {\text{EMV}}_{t - 1}\) | 0.0254*** | − 0.0094 | 0.0012 | 0.0040 |
(0.0000) | (0.7280) | (0.9150) | (0.6020) | |
\(Constant\) | 0.6003 | 0.1959** | 0.7914*** | − 0.1788* |
(0.1560) | (0.0120) | (0.0000) | (0.0554) | |
\(Observations\) | 408 | 408 | 408 | 408 |
McFadden's pseud-R2 | 0.7546 | 0.4845 | 0.4657 | 0.6786 |
Log-likelihood | − 88.0272 | − 67.0566 | − 144.0302 | − 85.3862 |
Hosmer–Lemeshow test | 6.030 | 1.570 | 2.250 | 5.960 |
(0.4193) | (0.6670) | (0.1332) | (0.1508) |