Skip to main content
Financial Innovation

Table 5 Econometric models

From: Initial coin offerings (ICOs): Why do they succeed?

 

Model 1

Model 2

Dependent variable: capital raised in USD log

Dependent variable: binary variable of soft-cap achievement

Project variables

+ Campaign variables

+ Social networks variables

+ Team variables

Project variables

+ Campaign variables

+ Social networks variables

 + Team variables

R2 (Pseudo R2)

0.16

0.26

0.30

0.33

0.09

0.16

0.21

0.22

Adjusted R2

0.15

0.24

0.27

0.29

–

–

–

–

Observations

428

428

428

428

428

428

428

428

 

Coefficient

SE

Coefficient

SE

Coefficient

SE

Coefficient

SE

Coefficient

SE

Coefficient

SE

Coefficient

SE

Coefficient

SE

Project variables

Whitepaper: team disclosed

1.31

0.39**

1.31

0.36***

1.27

0.36***

1.02

0.36**

0.64

0.23*

0.88

0.26**

0.90

0.27**

0.81

0.28**

Whitepaper: technical

3.00

0.44***

2.73

0.41***

2.54

0.41***

2.35

0.41***

1.10

0.27***

1.06

0.28***

1.01

0.30**

0.93

0.30**

Whitepaper: word count log

0.10

0.13

0.05

0.12

− 0.05

0.12

− 0.04

0.12

0.15

0.09*

0.13

0.09

0.07

0.10

0.05

0.10

Restricted countries

− 0.00

0.02

0.12

0.06*

0.00

0.02

− 0.00

0.02

− 0.01

0.02

0.00

0.01

− 0.00

0.01

− 0.00

0.02

Region: North America

− 0.44

0.70

− 0.89

0.64

− 0.85

0.64

− 0.82

0.63

− 0.46

0.44

− 0.99

0.49**

− 0.96

0.51*

− 0.87

0.52

Region: Asia–Pacific

0.53

0.57

0.63

0.52

0.51

0.51

0.37

0.50

0.07

0.35

0.02

0.37

− 0.03

0.38

− 0.04

0.39

Region: Europe

0.71

0.51

0.55

0.47

0.39

0.46

0.38

0.46

0.21

0.31

0.04

0.33

− 0.01

0.35

− 0.02

0.35

Campaign variables

Pre-sales

  

− 0.16

0.32

− 0.15

0.32

− 0.26

0.31

  

− 0.23

0.23

− 0.24

0.24

− 0.32

0.24

Bonus scheme

  

0.92

0.33**

0.90

0.33**

0.88

0.33**

  

0.44

0.23*

0.45

0.24*

0.41

0.25

Token price log

  

0.70

0.38*

0.70

0.37*

0.00

0.00*

  

0.23

0.27

0.33

0.27

0.00

0.00

BTC price log

  

− 10.00

1.82***

− 9.81

1.76

− 10.18

1.72***

  

− 7.51

1.43***

− 7.50

1.48***

− 7.71

1.47***

ETH price log

  

3.82

1.03***

3.88

1.01***

3.80

1.00***

  

2.31

0.84**

2.65

0.88**

2.55

0.88**

CCY accepted

  

0.06

0.08

0.05

0.08***

0.04

0.07

  

− 0.00

0.05

− 0.01

0.05

− 0.02

0.05

Social network variables

Twitter active campaign

    

0.71

0.43

0.79

0.43*

    

0.80

0.33**

0.79

0.33**

Twitter followers log

    

0.38

0.20*

0.38

0.20*

    

0.32

0.14**

0.35

0.15**

Twitter number of tweets log

    

− 0.23

0.29

− 0.29

0.29

    

− 0.28

0.21

− 0.34

0.22

Github account

    

0.34

0.45

0.15

0.45

    

0.30

0.34

0.21

0.35

Github code prior ICO

    

0.19

0.47

0.24

0.46

    

− 0.01

0.34

− 0.02

0.35

Website active on May, 2020

    

0.38

0.34

0.31

0.34

    

0.26

0.26

0.18

0.26

Team variables

Team members

      

2.04

.69**

      

0.83

0.55

Advisors log

      

− 0.06

0.49

      

− 0.05

0.37

LinkedIn connections log

      

− 0.04

0.13

      

0.08

0.11

 

Model 3

Model 4

Dependent variable: Binary Variable of Hard-cap Achievement

Dependent variable: binary variable for the existence of a secondary market

Project variables

 + Campaign variables

 + Social networks variables

+ Team variables

Project variables

+ Campaign variables

+ Social networks variables

+ Team variables

R2 (Pseudo R2)

0.06

0.17

0.21

0.24

0.07

0.19

0.22

0.22

Adjusted R2

–

–

–

–

–

–

–

–

Observations

428

428

428

428

428

428

428

428

 

Coefficient

SE

Coefficient

SE

Coefficient

SE

Coefficient

SE

Coefficient

SE

Coefficient

SE

Coefficient

SE

Coefficient

SE

Project variables

Whitepaper: team disclosed

− 0.38

0.30

0.01

0.33

− 0.06

0.35

− 0.07

0.37

− 0.14

0.29

0.32

0.33

0.19

0.35

0.21

0.35

Whitepaper: technical

0.94

0.31**

0.89

0.35**

0.77

0.38**

0.80

0.39**

1.36

0.30***

1.22

0.33***

1.05

0.35**

1.04

0.35**

Whitepaper: word count log

0.25

0.13*

0.30

0.14**

0.31

0.15**

0.33

0.16**

0.01

0.10

0.01

0.12

− 0.05

0.12

− 0.03

0.12

Restricted countries

− 0.05

0.06

− 0.01

0.03

− 0.02

0.04

− 0.01

0.03

− 0.01

0.04

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.02

0.01

0.02

Region: North America

0.23

0.61

− 0.25

0.68

− 0.31

0.70

− 0.36

0.75

1.12

0.58*

0.65

0.67

0.67

0.67

0.69

0.68

Region: Asia–Pacific

0.43

0.49

0.64

0.54

0.52

0.55

0.51

0.58

0.70

0.51

0.88

0.58

0.81

0.58

0.80

0.58

Region: Europe

0.37

0.46

0.50

0.50

0.36

0.50

0.58

0.54

0.92

0.48*

1.02

0.56*

1.00

0.55*

0.98

0.55*

Campaign variables

Pre-sales

  

− 1.06

0.33**

− 1.06

0.34**

− 1.02

0.35**

  

− 0.72

0.30**

− 0.74

0.30**

− 0.75

0.31**

Bonus scheme

  

− 0.21

0.34

− 0.24

0.35

− 0.05

0.36

  

− 0.15

0.30

− 0.14

0.32

− 0.16

0.32

Token price log

  

0.67

0.29**

0.76

0.30**

0.01

0.00**

  

− 0.32

0.37

− 0.28

0.39

− 0.01

0.01

BTC price log

  

− 4.43

1.78*

− 4.46

1.86**

− 4.33

1.90**

  

− 7.66

1.74***

− 7.33

1.77***

− 7.35

1.76***

ETH price log

  

0.85

1.23

0.96

1.26

0.81

1.29

  

1.41

1.22

1.77

1.23

1.75

1.23

CCY accepted

  

− 0.08

0.10

− 0.12

0.10

− 0.14

0.11

  

− 0.03

0.07

− 0.05

0.08

− 0.05

0.08

Social network variables

Twitter active campaign

    

0.45

0.46

0.42

0.47

    

− 0.37

0.42

− 0.36

0.42

Twitter followers log

    

0.41

0.21*

0.42

0.22*

    

0.21

0.19

0.21

0.19

Twitter number of tweets log

    

− 0.14

0.28

− 0.05

0.31

    

0.10

0.27

0.08

0.28

Github account

    

0.15

0.49

0.19

0.53

    

− 0.49

0.50

− 0.43

0.51

Github code prior ICO

    

0.14

0.49

0.26

0.52

    

0.71

0.51

0.63

0.51

Website active on May, 2020

    

− 0.56

0.36

− 0.61

0.38

    

0.49

0.34

0.47

0.35

Team variables

Team members

      

0.98

0.75

      

− 0.12

0.69

Advisors log

      

− 0.28

0.53

      

− 0.22

0.47

LinkedIn connections log

      

− 0.40

0.13*

      

0.09

0.13

  1. Significance levels: p < 0.01 (***); p < 0.05 (**); p < 0.1 (*)
Back to article page