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Table 5 Performance evaluation of Fibonacci and price crossover strategies

From: Energy crypto currencies and leading U.S. energy stock prices: are Fibonacci retracements profitable?

 

KMI

XOM

CVX

COP

SLB

EOG

OXY

MPC

PSX

VLO

Panel A: Energy stocks

Net positions (uptrend)

 − 6

1

0

0

0

 − 1

 − 2

0

0

 − 2

Net positions (downtrend)

0

1

0

2

0

 − 1

1

1

1

0

Total gain (uptrend)

116.32

 − 81.38

 − 1.12

0.00

0.00

158.08

163.87

0

0

186.10

Total gain (downtrend)

0

 − 75.92

0

 − 125.00

0

96.86

 − 64.83

 − 54.21

 − 90.83

0

Total return

 − 9%

 − 13%

 − 1%

4%

 − 

34%

35%

5%

14%

2%

Average risk

2.52

6.33

10.21

5.32

0

10.72

7.40

3.81

6.66

7.75

Sharpe

 − 0.044

 − 0.023

 − 0.003

0.004

 − 

0.030

0.044

0.008

0.018

0

Sharpe per trade

 − 0.0037

 − 0.0058

 − 0.0014

0.0010

 − 

0.0051

0.0074

0.0039

0.0088

0

Buy-and-hold returns

0.254

 − 0.161

 − 0.007

0.298

 − 0.38

 − 0.146

 − 0.335

 − 0.086

0.098

0.096

 

SNC

POWR

GRID

TSL

Panel B: Energy cryptos

Net positions (uptrend)

0

0

0

0

Net positions (downtrend)

 − 1

1

2

0

Total gain (uptrend)

0

0

0

0

Total gain (downtrend)

0

 − 0.12

 − 0.62

0

Total return

40%

 − 64%

 − 67%

 − 

Average risk

0.00

0.01

0.02

 − 

Sharpe

3273.55

 − 109.96

 − 29.63

 − 

Sharpe per trade

1636.77

 − 54.983

 − 4.939

 − 

Buy-and-hold returns

 − 0.986

 − 0.938

 − 0.960

 − 0.987

  1. Panel A of Table 5 summarizes the performance evaluation results of investing in the top ten U.S. energy stocks of the S&P Composite 1500 Energy index based on a Fibonacci retracement strategy which is complemented with a price crossover strategy. Panel B reports the results of four energy cryptos. Average returns and average risk are based on arithmetic averages. Sharpe values represent the excess return per unit of total risk. The U.S. 3-month Treasury bill rate was used as a proxy for the risk-free asset. Buy and hold returns denote the returns for opening a position at the start and closure of the position at the end of the trading period. Fibonacci retracement based returns are calculated by closing any remaining open positions at the end of the period. Net positions are the number of short positions deducted from long positions. The price crossover strategy was based on a 50-day MA. The period covered was Nov 2017–Jan 2020