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Table 5 Out-of-sample forecasting comparison criteria (7-day ahead forward prediction)

From: Linearity extensions of the market model: a case of the top 10 cryptocurrency prices during the pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 periods

Criteria

MAE × 102

Period

Pre-COVID-19

COVID-19

Model

LMM

GAM

Tv-LMM

LMM

GAM

Tv-LMM

BPI

0.707

0.785

0.404

0.898

0.883

0.526

ETH

1.530

1.560

0.921

0.628

0.607

0.423

XRP

1.467

1.419

1.022

0.844

0.840

0.714

BCH

1.419

1.592

0.699

1.311

1.324

1.143

BNB

1.782

1.714

1.547

1.628

1.626

1.533

LINK

4.173

4.057

3.708

1.925

1.917

1.544

CRO

1.777

1.730

1.592

2.721

2.721

2.576

LTC

1.217

1.231

0.744

1.374

1.384

1.067

BSV

3.621

2.982

2.161

1.156

1.157

0.777

ADA

1.278

1.391

0.843

1.147

1.147

1.092

Average

1.897

1.846

1.364

1.363

1.361

1.140

Criteria

MSE × 104

Period

Pre-COVID-19

COVID-19

Model

LMM

GAM

Tv-LMM

LMM

GAM

Tv-LMM

BPI

0.915

0.997

0.326

1.572

1.484

0.599

ETH

4.624

4.562

1.655

0.648

0.630

0.311

XRP

4.502

4.268

2.969

1.405

1.405

1.061

BCH

3.416

3.974

0.978

3.890

3.694

3.004

BNB

6.407

5.970

4.974

4.848

4.800

4.376

LINK

28.587

26.649

21.910

6.483

6.455

3.806

CRO

6.227

5.890

4.811

17.441

17.441

15.062

LTC

3.100

3.042

1.224

3.681

3.700

1.869

BSV

21.565

17.346

11.769

2.588

2.593

1.323

ADA

2.585

2.809

1.064

2.333

2.333

2.067

Average

8.193

7.551

5.168

4.489

4.454

3.348

  1. Bold values indicate the best predictability performance for cryptocurrency price in terms of the lowest MAE and MSE, respectively