Skip to main content

Table 4 Out-of-sample forecasting comparison criteria (1-day ahead forward prediction)

From: Linearity extensions of the market model: a case of the top 10 cryptocurrency prices during the pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 periods

Criteria

MAE × 102

Period

Pre-COVID-19

COVID-19

Model

LMM

GAM

Tv-LMM

LMM

GAM

Tv-LMM

BPI

0.758

0.834

0.429

0.981

0.956

0.613

ETH

1.560

1.584

0.891

0.684

0.657

0.486

XRP

1.472

1.409

0.959

0.859

0.855

0.731

BCH

1.232

1.450

0.673

1.360

1.361

1.188

BNB

1.502

1.415

1.219

1.459

1.470

1.385

LINK

3.995

3.816

3.442

1.802

1.796

1.438

CRO

1.838

1.802

1.640

2.899

2.899

2.778

LTC

1.133

1.189

0.690

1.404

1.398

1.099

BSV

3.423

2.740

1.842

1.106

1.103

0.765

ADA

1.327

1.388

0.817

1.201

1.201

1.143

Average

1.824

1.763

1.260

1.376

1.370

1.163

Criteria

MSE × 104

Period

Pre-COVID-19

COVID-19

Model

LMM

GAM

Tv-LMM

LMM

GAM

Tv-LMM

BPI

0.983

1.072

0.344

1.745

1.627

0.755

ETH

4.787

4.626

1.524

0.730

0.718

0.411

XRP

4.490

4.175

2.698

1.413

1.410

1.078

BCH

2.522

3.221

0.899

4.074

3.867

3.123

BNB

3.971

3.761

3.161

3.994

3.965

3.626

LINK

25.729

23.759

18.416

5.934

5.935

3.407

CRO

6.436

6.068

4.981

19.099

19.099

17.194

LTC

2.851

2.828

1.131

3.862

3.816

2.049

BSV

19.631

14.336

8.556

2.423

2.421

1.273

ADA

2.794

2.830

1.123

2.679

2.679

2.364

Average

7.419

6.668

4.283

4.595

4.554

3.528

  1. Bold values indicate the best predictability performance for cryptocurrency price in terms of the lowest MAE and MSE, respectively