From: Decision making on financial investment in Turkey by using ARDL long-term coefficients and AHP
Trend Specification | Intercept only | Trend and intercept | ||||||||||
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Break Specification | Intercept only | Intercept only | Trend and intercept | Trend only | ||||||||
t-Statistic | Prob. | Break Date | t-Statistic | Prob. | Break Date | t-Statistic | Prob. | Break Date | t-Statistic | Prob. | Break Date | |
EURO | −0.3290 | > 0.99 | 2016 M10 | −2.5494 | 0.9809 | 2016 M10 | −2.9090 | 0.9727 | 2015 M09 | −2.8470 | 0.7793 | 2016 M07 |
D (EURO) | −8.8550b | < 0.01 | 2015 M11 | −9.0452b | < 0.01 | 2014 M01 | −9.2254b | < 0.01 | 2015 M09 | −8.6934b | < 0.01 | 2018 M02 |
GOLD | −2.2811 | 0.9498 | 2015 M12 | −3.4865 | 0.7002 | 2012 M12 | −3.0549 | 0.9541 | 2012 M11 | −1.9398 | > 0.99 | 2015 M12 |
D (GOLD) | −10.5885b | < 0.01 | 2011 M08 | −11.4543b | < 0.01 | 2011 M08 | −11.6370b | < 0.01 | 2011 M08 | −9.4209b | < 0.01 | 2018 M04 |
USD | −0.5954 | > 0.99 | 2015 M01 | −3.6670 | 0.5859 | 2015 M01 | −4.4301 | 0.2702 | 2015 M01 | −4.3169 | 0.0867 | 2013 M04 |
D (USD) | −8.1463b | < 0.01 | 2018 M03 | −8.3225b | < 0.01 | 2018 M04 | −8.9835b | < 0.01 | 2017 M11 | −8.3886b | < 0.01 | 2018 M03 |
BIST | −4.6665a | 0.0272 | 2014 M04 | −5.0509 | 0.0284 | 2009 M04 | −4.6335 | 0.1801 | 2011 M05 | −5.0360a | 0.0114 | 2009 M06 |
CAB | −11.7756b | < 0.01 | 2011 M03 | −10.6465b | < 0.01 | 2011 M03 | −11.0613b | < 0.01 | 2011 M03 | −9.5589b | < 0.01 | 2011 M04 |
CPI | −0.0567 | > 0.99 | 2016 M05 | −3.4391 | 0.7284 | 2016 M11 | −4.5932 | 0.1959 | 2016 M11 | −4.5309a | 0.0493 | 2016 M09 |
D (CPI) | −9.7278b | < 0.01 | 2011 M05 | −9.8994b | < 0.01 | 2011 M05 | −10.0987b | < 0.01 | 2011 M05 | −9.4852b | < 0.01 | 2018 M03 |
FDI | −5.0862b | < 0.01 | 2014 M11 | −5.6847b | < 0.01 | 2009 M11 | −5.8871b | < 0.01 | 2010 M03 | −5.6889b | < 0.01 | 2010 M03 |
D (FDI) | −14.7558b | < 0.01 | 2017 M07 | −17.1698b | < 0.01 | 2017 M07 | −15.7627b | < 0.01 | 2017 M07 | −11.4282b | < 0.01 | 2014 M12 |
IPI | −2.3688 | 0.9334 | 2016 M08 | −11.5692b | < 0.01 | 2010 M02 | −11.5900b | < 0.01 | 2010 M03 | −11.1576b | < 0.01 | 2010 M03 |
OP | −3.9062 | 0.1911 | 2014 M08 | −4.5462 | 0.1168 | 2014 M08 | −3.3823 | 0.8651 | 2014 M09 | −2.7085 | 0.8438 | 2017 M07 |
D (OP) | −9.9698b | < 0.01 | 2015 M01 | −11.1216b | < 0.01 | 2016 M01 | −11.0106b | < 0.01 | 2016 M01 | −9.9642b | < 0.01 | 2015 M01 |
TOT | −3.1056 | 0.8778 | 2014 M09 | −2.7460 | 0.8120 | 2014 M09 | −2.7617 | 0.9853 | 2014 M11 | −2.3845 | 0.9450 | 2010 M03 |
D (TOT) | −10.6107b | < 0.01 | 2009 M05 | −10.6069b | < 0.01 | 2009 M05 | −10.1253b | < 0.01 | 2016 M01 | −9.6587b | < 0.01 | 2009 M11 |