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Table 6 Probability of success sensitivity analysis

From: Value chain financing and plantain production in Nigeria: an ex-ante approach

Scenario Prob. of success (%) Total economic surplus (B) (USD ‘000) Total cost (C) (USD ‘000) Benefit – cost (B-C) (USD ‘000) Benefit cost ratio B/C (USD ‘000) IRR NPV (USD ‘000) Change in NPV (USD ‘000) % change
Optimistic 90 5683.4 1150.2 4533.1 4.94 41.9% 4682.97
Base 70 4407.1 1150.2 3256.8 3.83 36.8% 3406.68 − 1276.29 −27.25
Pessimistic 30 1877.3 1150.2 727 1.63 22.8% 876.91 − 1261.09 −58.98
  1. Source: Simulation estimates from DREAM analysis