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Table 6 Probability of success sensitivity analysis

From: Value chain financing and plantain production in Nigeria: an ex-ante approach

Scenario

Prob. of success (%)

Total economic surplus (B) (USD ‘000)

Total cost (C) (USD ‘000)

Benefit – cost (B-C) (USD ‘000)

Benefit cost ratio B/C (USD ‘000)

IRR

NPV (USD ‘000)

Change in NPV (USD ‘000)

% change

Optimistic

90

5683.4

1150.2

4533.1

4.94

41.9%

4682.97

Base

70

4407.1

1150.2

3256.8

3.83

36.8%

3406.68

− 1276.29

−27.25

Pessimistic

30

1877.3

1150.2

727

1.63

22.8%

876.91

− 1261.09

−58.98

  1. Source: Simulation estimates from DREAM analysis