Table 6 Probability of success sensitivity analysis
From: Value chain financing and plantain production in Nigeria: an ex-ante approach
Scenario | Prob. of success (%) | Total economic surplus (B) (USD ‘000) | Total cost (C) (USD ‘000) | Benefit – cost (B-C) (USD ‘000) | Benefit cost ratio B/C (USD ‘000) | IRR | NPV (USD ‘000) | Change in NPV (USD ‘000) | % change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Optimistic | 90 | 5683.4 | 1150.2 | 4533.1 | 4.94 | 41.9% | 4682.97 | – | – |
Base | 70 | 4407.1 | 1150.2 | 3256.8 | 3.83 | 36.8% | 3406.68 | − 1276.29 | −27.25 |
Pessimistic | 30 | 1877.3 | 1150.2 | 727 | 1.63 | 22.8% | 876.91 | − 1261.09 | −58.98 |