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Table 3 Estimation results of GARCH and APARCH models with Student’s t-distribution

From: Modeling and forecasting exchange rate volatility in Bangladesh using GARCH models: a comparison based on normal and Student’s t-error distribution

Coefficients

GARCH

APARCH

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

μ

1.79E-07

6.72E-08

−4.08E-08

7.92E-10

4.36E-09

2.25E-09

(1.37E-07)

(1.42E-07)

(1.56E-07)

(1.84E-07)

(1.03E-07)

(6.09E-08)

ρ 1

 

0.227924*

0.246680*

 

0.149727*

0.095646*

 

(0.022967)

(0.018652)

 

(0.016292)

(0.011675)

ρ 2

  

0.166564*

  

0.073848*

  

(0.016849)

  

(0.009821)

η

2.76E-13

2.01E-13

1.78E-13

0.000808

2.70E-05

0.000190

(2.08E-13)

(1.50E-13)

(1.12E-13)

(0.000809)

(6.55E-05)

(0.000549)

α

0.926099*

1.889860*

1.633760*

1.421359**

1.707541*

1.445461*

(0.073253)

(0.426702)

(0.452555)

(0.669212)

(0.501460)

(0.506596)

γ

   

−0.068862**

−0.078959***

−0.106666**

   

(0.032925)

(0.041074)

(0.044544)

δ

   

0.611742*

0.671478*

0.530577*

   

(0.021520)

(0.028684)

(0.019776)

β

0.464984*

0.514459*

0.503470*

0.653877*

0.574994*

0.593071*

(0.004546)

(0.004297)

(0.004305)

(0.008688)

(0.012415)

(0.009463)

Q1(4)

0.0032

0.0015

0.0015

0.0002

0.00002

0.000004

Q1(8)

0.0064

0.0029

0.0030

0.0231

0.00003

0.00001

Q2(4)

0.0321

0.0268

0.0270

0.0802

0.0569

0.0551

Q2(8)

0.0644

0.0538

0.0542

0.1603

0.1142

0.1105

Log Likelihood

6606.627

6622.211

6690.907

6717.160

7694.906

7809.244

F Statistic

0.007976

0.00666

0.006713

0.01994

0.01414

0.013687

Probability

0.9288

0.9349

0.9347

0.8877

0.9053

0.9069

  1. Robust Standard Errors are in Parenthesis. *** indicates significant at 10% level, ** indicates significant at 5% level and *indicates that at 1% level