From: The volatility of returns from commodity futures: evidence from India
Commodity futures→ | Mentha oil | Crude Oil | Gold | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Contract types → | Next Near | Far | Near | Next Near | Far | Near | Next Near | Far |
Co-efficients↓ | ||||||||
Mean | ||||||||
μ (constant) | −4.30E − 05c | −0.002299b | 8.02E-05c | 0.000215c | -0.00044c | 0.000251c | 0.000436c | −5.84E − 05b |
Variance | ||||||||
ω (constant) | 5.01E − 06b | 0.000315b | 2.34E-06b | 1.72E-06b | 5.14E-05b | 1.60E-06b | 1.35E-06b | 4.82E-06b |
α (arch effect) | 0.099648b | -0.003595b | 0.032133b | 0.030668b | -0.00364b | 0.071647b | 0.084121b | 0.217631b |
β (garch effect) | 0.891336b | 0.856938b | 0.960178b | 0.962725b | 0.9111b | 0.917732b | 0.903237b | 0.775297b |
α + β | 0.990984 | 0.853343 | 0.992311 | 0.993393 | 0.90746 | 0.989379 | 0.987358 | 0.992928 |
Log likelihood | 5376.339 | 3241.84 | 5582.369 | 5772.936 | 4778.326 | 4315.175 | 3862.321 | 4295.068 |
Akaike info. Criterion (AIC) | −5.384801 | −3.307962 | −5.30673 | −5.464648 | −4.6343 | −6.45236 | −6.75537 | −6.61537 |
Schwarz info. Criterion (SIC) | −5.370770 | −3.293707 | −5.29329 | −5.451254 | −4.62063 | −6.43291 | −6.73330 | −6.59545 |
Residual Diagnostics for GARCH (1, 1):ARCH-LM (1) test for heteroskedasticity | ||||||||
Obsa R-squared | 1.204135 | 0.025106 | 0.264945 | 0.057879 | 0.003309 | 2.001935 | 0.12552 | 0.617633 |
Prob. Chi-Square(1) | 0.2725 | 0.8741 | 0.6067 | 0.8099 | 0.9541 | 0.1571 | 0.7231 | 0.4319 |
Wald Test | ||||||||
F-statistic | 1433.702 | 1191.443 | 1497.929 | 1524.253 | 2935.317 | 10.09822 | 9.188416 | 3.26E-34a |
Probability | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.0015 | 0.0025 | 1.000 |